The last game of the World Championship Division I Group A tournament was circled as a gold medal match-up.

Italy and the hosts, Great Britain, were supposed to be playing for the right to end the tournament as overall winners.

The tournament hasn’t transpired in that manner, however.

Poland took a point from Great Britain and then beat Italy 4-2 on Game Day Three, completely altering the complexion of the event.

Poland requires a victory of any kind to guarantee a promotion. It’s difficult to envisage a situation whereupon Romania denies them that.

So Great Britain and Italy will battle it out Friday evening with just one promotion spot up for grabs.

Not an ideal situation for the hosts but they remain in the driving seat as the only unbeaten team.

The formula is simple for Great Britain, assuming Poland picks up three points against Romania.

1) Regulation Win – Promotion and Gold medal for Great Britain

2) Overtime or Shootout Win – Promotion and Gold medal for Great Britain

3) Overtime or Shootout Loss – Promotion and Silver medal for Great Britain

4) Regulation Loss – Promotion and Silver medal for Italy

In summary, if Great Britain avoids defeat in regulation, promotion back to the top tier of world hockey is assured.

So what are GB’s chances against Italy?

Both have shown high-powered offence to this point.
Italy has twenty goals to GB’s nineteen with both nations scoring on around 13% of their shots.

Great Britain holds the edge on special teams and is more disciplined.

The hosts are registering at 33% on the man advantage as opposed to Italy’s 25%, and have drawn nine more penalties.

GB’s penalty kill ranks so highly because they’ve given up just eight penalties through the tournaments and allowed one goal. Italy meanwhile, is the joint worst penalty offender with fifteen infractions and has killed twelve of those (80%).

The largest difference between the nations is in defence.

Great Britain has posted three shutouts, allowing all four goals conceded thus far in the overtime victory against Poland.

Italy has yet to record a shutout and has given up more goals than expected against unfancied nations.

Romania scored twice, Poland netted four in their win against Italy and Lithuania also hit the twine on four occasions.

It is a one-off game and essentially a winner-takes-all cup final.

Nothing can be taken for granted.

Italy has proven to be largely inconsistent in every performance, and the pressure will be on them to carry the play. A team with almost nothing to lose and everything to gain can be a dangerous animal to face.

What is certain is that if Great Britain remains disciplined, defensively responsible and takes their chances, promotion is very much in its own hands.

There will never be a better opportunity to regain top-tier status.

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