2024 IIHF Mens World Championships
Two defeats this weekend leave Great Britain without a point heading into the final two games of the group stage.
Whilst a regulation loss to Czechia was predictable, the reverse to Denmark stings.
After dominating the eleventh seed, taking nothing from that game is a body blow given that Norway and Austria already have three and four points respectively. A win versus Denmark would have made Great Britain’s survival bid easier and probably less complicated!
Norway and Austria will battle today (Sunday afternoon) in the penultimate game of the group for both nations. There is much on the line with Austria knowing that a regulation win will guarantee their safety.
There are many scenarios in play given the outcome of that game, but the best one for Great Britain is relatively simple, so we‘ll start there.
1) A regulation win for Austria would leave them safe.
It would ensure that the main relegation battle would take place on Monday. Great Britain could ensure their survival with a regulation victory against Norway. If GB were to win in overtime/shootout against Norway, they would require any victory versus Austria. Defeat to Norway in any format would automatically see Great Britain relegated.
2) Regulation Win for Norway
Great Britain would require either an OTL/SOL versus Norway and a regulation win against Austria or a Regulation Win versus Norway and any victory against Austria.
3) OT/SO Win for Austria
A Regulation Win versus Norway plus a point against Austria or an OT/SO win versus Norway and a Regulation Win against Austria.
4) OT/SO Win for Norway
This result is the worst-case scenario for Great Britain. Victories against both nations would be required, but one of those wins would have to be in regulation.
Whatever the result of today’s game between Norway and Austria, Great Britain’s fate is very much in their own hands.
Option one is the more viable from GB’s perspective as I believe they can produce the type of performance which would earn them a regulation-time victory against Norway. Great Britain will be the fresher team coming off a rest day, while Norway is playing their second game in as many days.
Great Britain has shown at different times during this tournament that they can compete with higher-ranked nations in parts of the games. Replicating the Denmark performance with a tweak or two would be enough to stave off relegation.
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