Liam Kirk is enjoying an excellent start to his second season in the Ontario Hockey League and this has led to many people on social media asking about his future beyond the second season in Canadian junior hockey.

As announced at the beginning of the season, Caitlin Berry and I will be joining forces to bring you all the Liam Kirk coverage you can handle and this piece is no different.

So let’s make a few assumptions here, to begin with, because it’s only November, hockey is unpredictable and quite frankly we’ve little else to go on.

The Peterborough Petes are comfortably in a playoff spot right now and beating some of the higher-ranked teams in the OHL.
Their characteristic issues with inconsistent play are still sometimes present but are much lessened on a team where stars like Nick Robertson and Semyon Der-Arguchintsev are lighting up the score sheet almost every game.

Therefore a deep run in the post-season should be an expectation rather than a forlorn hope like perhaps it was last year.
Then there is the prospect of the 2020 IIHF World Championships in Switzerland next May and Kirk is a lock to be a part of Great Britain’s roster.

So professional hockey either with the AHL’s Tucson Roadrunners or Rapid City Rush of the ECHL in the form of an ATO contract looks highly improbable at the back end of this season.

But what about the 2020-21 campaign?

Turning professional

As much as I (Mark) might bug the Arizona Coyotes twitter account (I’m sorry about that guys) it’s unlikely that the Coyotes are in any rush to pen the British forward to an Entry-Level Contract.
Having been drafted out of a European professional hockey league, Kirk’s rights belong to the Coyotes organisation for four years until June 1st, 2020.
In short, they still have a lot of time to assess his development before making a move to sign him.

With NHL teams limited to fifty contracts at any one time, they are loath to hand out ELC’s to borderline prospects.
For some context, a check of the excellent website Cap Friendly (cap friendly.com) reveals that Arizona currently has a total of seventeen players taken in the last three drafts that have yet to be signed to an ELC (including Kirk).

However, there is the option for Kirk to turn professional in a different manner.
AHL contracts for borderline prospects within a system, or those players who remain unsigned after their draft deadline has passed, have become more of the norm in recent terms and if Arizona deems that a better course of action for Kirk’s development then they could pen the Brit to a deal with Tucson Roadrunners.

That doesn’t mean the forward would automatically play in the AHL however with the likelihood being he starts off in the ECHL as a slightly easier transition to professional hockey on offer as well as more ice-time.

What has been mostly overlooked on social media from what I’ve read is the fact that Kirk is eligible to stay in junior as an over-ager for Peterborough Petes. I’ll pass the reigns to Caitlin Berry who will take you through the possibilities and what might need to occur for this to happen.

Returning to the OHL

In the chance that Kirk does not earn an AHL or ECHL contract, there is the possibility of him remaining in the OHL for his overage year.

For anyone not familiar with this facet of junior hockey; Ontario Hockey League teams are able to carry three 20-year-old (‘overage’) players on their roster per season. In fact, they can actually carry more, but can only dress three overage players per game and must cut down to three before the trade deadline in January.

Born in 2000, this would make Kirk an ‘overager’ in the league next season. It is therefore possible that, should Arizona feel it would be best for him, he could return to the Petes for a final year.

This may not be as simple as it sounds, however, and whether he would remain on the Petes if he were returned to the OHL is another issue.

As I mentioned, OHL teams are only allowed three overage players on their roster per season. Added to this, teams are only allowed two import players on their roster per season. Keeping Kirk around would mean he takes up two valuable roster spots for the Petes.

Moreover, the Petes would need to be aware of whether or not he was returning by June; keeping him on the roster would mean Peterborough have one less pick in the CHL Import Draft, as an import roster spot needs to be available in order for the team to make a selection.

Teams are always looking to bolster their offence, and many have had overage imports in the past- for example, Albert Michnac in Saginaw just last season. But it would be a question of the Petes weighing up his worth to them on a rebuilding team that will likely lose standouts like Nick Robertson, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Hunter Jones and perhaps even Declan Chisholm to professional hockey next year.

With the Petes roster as it stands (and given the likely graduates to the NHL/AHL) there is no doubt Kirk would be the most valuable overage player on the squad next season. He sits fourth in points behind Robertson, SDA and Chisholm, and is joint-second on the team in goals. Kirk has proven to be an instrumental part of Peterborough’s offence this year only 18 games in, scoring at a 1.3 points-per-game rate.

He could provide consistent scoring, valuable experience and leadership for a team going through a rebuild. But his value could also make him desirable in a trade. Given the rather tight-fisted OHL trade climate right now, overagers aren’t typically garnering a huge return. But if Kirk’s production continues on this trajectory he could get the rebuilding Petes four or five good picks in a deal made at the right time.

Of course, all of this is just conjecture right now. It’s still only November, and unfortunately, we do not have the power to read the minds of Arizona’s player development staff.

But while Kirk’s early production this season is encouraging, it’s still up in their air whether he’ll earn an ELC or an AHL or ECHL contract in the Yotes’ system. A potential return to the OHL for one final year, whatever team he may end up on, is a possibility worth keeping in mind.